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Prediction markets · edge
Find where the market is wrong.
Measure contract probability using structured public signal, not crowd sentiment. The result is a measurable position, not a crowd-derived estimate.
Probability
Divergence
Liquidity
Timing
Velocity
Edge
Scroll — this page is the argument
What it does
The trading jobs Noah is built for.
SpotIdentify mispriced contracts before odds adjust.
CompareNoah probability vs market probability.
AssessLiquidity and contract quality.
MonitorPositions as signal evolves; rerun continuously.
The questions
Ask it the way a trader asks.
“Is this contract mispriced? Where is the edge? Is this noise or real movement?”
What you receive
Two probabilities. The gap between them is the edge.
Every read returns a market price, a Noah-derived probability, the divergence between them, ranked drivers and watchpoints — paired with the structured bundle so the position is interrogable end-to-end.
Example output · live read
US election outcome contract · 14-day horizon.
Market52% — the crowd’s price.
Noah63% — signal-derived probability.
Edge11pp positive divergence — direction: strengthening.
Evidence18 supporting signals across political reporting, regional sentiment and campaign activity.
Inside the read
Ranked drivers. Live watchpoints.
DriversShift in regional engagement · increased consistency across local sources · weakening counter-signal.
WatchpointsMajor campaign event · media narrative consolidation · polling reversal.
The advantage
Markets price visibility. Signal forms earlier.
Most participants react to what is already visible. Noah measures the inputs the market hasn’t priced yet — early signal formation, fragmented low-visibility sources, emerging consistency before consensus.
How a read is built
Each contract is a defined investigation.
01 RouteThrough a prediction-market workflow.
02 MapSignal mapped to the underlying event.
03 LanesDirectional signal lanes constructed.
04 CompareSignal-derived probability vs market price.
05 ReturnA structured divergence position.
Where edge appears
Two numbers matter.
MarketA consensus price, derived from crowd belief.
SignalA measured probability, derived from forming evidence.
Beyond a single read
Monitor continuously. Filter the markets that aren’t worth trading.
MonitoringSave any contract · track probability movement · see when divergence widens or closes.
QualityLiquidity strength · signal relevance to the event · structural clarity of the contract.
Who this is for
Built for traders working signal, not sentiment.
Prediction market traders
Macro traders
Analysts
Independent researchers
Deployment
Run it the way you trade.
WorkspaceTrader-level investigation with saved contracts and structured exports.
APIAutomated monitoring with divergence events streamed into your tools.
WorkflowDrop a Noah read into your trading or research pipeline.
PrivateAudit-ready, behind-the-firewall deployments for institutional desks.